EU sees diesel pressure at least until 2027 as METSAF fuel aid ends 2026-12-31

Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said on 2026-10-28 that the global diesel market will remain under pressure at least until 2027 . The Commission's temporary state-aid framework for fuel costs, METSAF, is still set to expire on 2026-12-31, and no extension has been announced as of 2026-10-31. For road freight carriers, the supply outlook and the end of the aid now point in opposite directions.

What the Commission said about diesel supply

Jorgensen spoke at the first meeting of the new European dialogue on refineries, which he co-chaired with Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius. Industry representatives, engineering firms, trade associations, and NATO attended. Citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), Jorgensen said: "we expect the global diesel market to remain under pressure at least until 2027, which will keep prices high." He added that about 25% of EU refineries have closed over the past two decades, cutting domestic refining capacity by about 10%.

The dialogue aims to maximise output of the most urgently needed fuels, in particular aviation fuel and diesel. Work continues at technical level, the sector's proposals still have to be assessed, and a further meeting is planned for early 2027.

The IEA Oil Market Report of 2026-10-14 shows the same tight picture. Global diesel exports in September were about 700 kb/d (thousand barrels per day) lower than a year earlier, and combined net exports from the Middle East and Russia dropped by 1.3 mb/d (million barrels per day) to 820 kb/d. The report also shows some relief: European diesel cracks (the margin refiners earn over crude oil) fell from around 100 USD/bbl to close to 60 USD/bbl by early October.

What METSAF covers and when it stops

METSAF, the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework, was adopted on 2026-04-29 and applies until 2026-12-31, according to the Commission's competition policy page . State aid (public support to companies that the Commission must clear) under the framework covers agriculture, fisheries, and transport, including road, rail, inland waterways, and intra-EU short sea shipping.

Member states can pay up to 70% of the extra costs caused by fuel and fertiliser price rises, verified at beneficiary level. The alternative is up to 50,000 EUR per company for additional fuel costs, which can be estimated from general sector fuel consumption figures.

National schemes are time-boxed as well. Spain raised its scheme for road transport companies to up to 703 million EUR on 2026-07-28 and extended it by two months , covering July and August 2026. No METSAF extension beyond 2026-12-31 has been announced, so a carrier cannot plan on this support in 2027.

What carriers should check before 2027

Pump prices are high but easing. The EU average diesel price was 2.146 EUR/l on 2026-10-26, down from 2.237 EUR/l on 2026-09-28, according to EU Weekly Oil Bulletin data compiled by fuel-prices.eu . On 2026-10-26 Germany stood at 2.298 EUR/l, Spain at 1.888 EUR/l, and Poland at 1.781 EUR/l. These prices include national tax relief that ends on different dates, which our winter diesel forecast walks through.

The practical risk is timing. If the aid ends on 2026-12-31 while the Commission still expects diesel pressure, the extra fuel cost returns to carrier margins or to shipper rate talks from 2027-01-01. Check two things this week: when your national scheme last pays out, and whether your fuel surcharge clauses follow a published diesel index. The fuel surcharge formula guide explains how to set that up, and the EU fuel price map shows current diesel prices by country.

If you need to price 2027 lanes against current diesel costs, you can request a quote from Logifie .