European combined transport fell 5% in Q1 2026: more loads stay on road

European combined transport volumes fell 4.92% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, the steepest quarterly drop since the sector's post-pandemic recovery, according to UIRR's Quarterly Combined Transport Performance Gauge published on 2026-06-04 . Road haulage absorbed the overflow, but the extra load has not lifted spot rates — which fell to 132.3 index points — as surplus capacity competes for loads in a weakened demand environment.

What drove intermodal volumes down?

UIRR identified two intersecting causes. The primary factor is Germany's prolonged rail infrastructure disruptions: intermodal freight trains were denied adequate diversionary paths around fully closed railway sections — the Hamburg–Berlin line, covering 165 km of track, was among the main closures — and alternative routes were sometimes hundreds of kilometres longer and technically unsuitable. The additional operating costs were not compensated, leading UIRR members to reduce services on affected corridors. Volume losses that began in Germany in 2025 continued through Q1 2026.

The second cause is weak European economic demand. Lower industrial output freed up road haulage capacity, making it easier for shippers to shift loads back to truck rather than absorb the disruption-related delays and cost increases on intermodal services. State aid measures that support road haulage competitiveness have also limited combined transport's ability to win back long-distance freight from trucks.

How are road freight rates responding?

The IRU x Upply x Transport Intelligence Q1 2026 European Road Freight Benchmark shows a clear split. Contract rates rose to 140.1 index points, up 3.2 points quarter on quarter and 8.9 points year on year. Spot rates moved in the opposite direction, falling to 132.3 index points — down 2.8 points quarter on quarter and 2.0 points year on year. The divergence reflects two competing pressures: rising costs and soft demand.

On costs, EU diesel prices rose from EUR 1.56 per litre at the end of Q4 2025 to EUR 1.96 per litre at the end of Q1 2026, a 26% increase driven by the war in Iran. Logifie's EU Fuel Price Map shows live pump prices by country, updated daily. On the demand side, Transport Intelligence analysts expect the cost pressure to feed through into rising spot rates in Q2, once operators pass through the fuel increase in new negotiations.

What changes as German rail capacity returns?

Germany's Hamburg–Berlin corridor has been closed since September 2025 for a general renovation covering more than 165 km of track and nearly 250 switches. DB InfraGO has scheduled full recommissioning for 2026-06-14 , restoring regular freight services on a route that has been diverting trains onto longer, costlier paths. Road operators on Hamburg–Berlin flows should expect intermodal to reclaim some volume from mid-June as rail capacity is restored.

Longer-term structural uncertainty remains. UIRR noted that the revision of the Combined Transport Directive is politically unresolved after the European Parliament blocked withdrawal of the proposal, and six rail associations are pressing EU institutions to continue work on the directive rather than let it lapse. The outcome shapes competition between road and intermodal across key EU corridors. For operators planning capacity on those lanes, a transport management system helps model the cost implications of route changes as modal conditions shift. Contact Logifie's team to discuss freight planning on affected corridors.