Logistics trends 2027 in Europe: what changes for road freight, warehousing and last mile

For European road freight, 2027 is mainly a year of rule changes and preparation, with only modest demand growth expected in Germany. The German Logistikweisen expert panel put its 2027 trend scenario for the German logistics market at +1.0% real growth, according to VerkehrsRundschau on 2026-10-21 . That is one panel's view, not a market consensus, and this post treats it that way. Below you will find a dated calendar of the rules that matter, then the sections on tolls, electric trucks, demand, warehousing and last mile.

The aim is a planning document. Each item says what is adopted, what is only scheduled, and what is still a request or an expectation.

What changes for European road freight in 2027?

Only a handful of rules take effect in 2027 itself, and the biggest one for operations is the eFTI regulation on 2027-07-09. Several larger items sit just outside the year (ETS2, Euro 7, the licence directive), so 2027 is when budgets and systems have to be prepared for them. The table below lists the main dated items in this post in order.

The sections that follow explain each row in the order a fleet manager is likely to need it.

Is ETS2 really delayed to 2028, and what should hauliers budget for in 2027?

Yes. EU lawmakers agreed a one-year postponement of ETS2 to 2028 on 2025-12-09, as Euronews reported on 2025-12-10 . ETS2 is the EU's second emissions trading system, which puts a carbon price on fuels used in road transport and buildings. The delay sits in an amendment to the EU Climate Law, not in the ETS Directive itself.

For a 2027 budget this means ETS2 should not appear as a cost line. It should appear as a preparation item. Contracts that run into 2028 are where the exposure starts, so the practical work in 2027 is deciding how fuel and carbon price changes will pass through to customers. The ETS2 road freight carbon price guide covers the mechanism in detail.

One limit applies here: this post does not give an ETS2 price forecast, because no dated source supports one.

When does Euro 7 apply to trucks, and could the dates move again?

Under Regulation (EU) 2024/1257, Euro 7 applies to new heavy-duty vehicle types from 2028-05-29 and to all new heavy-duty vehicles from 2029-05-29. Small-volume manufacturers get until 2031-07-01. These are the dates in the adopted text, and there is no adopted amendment that changes them as of 2026-11-05.

The open question is lobbying. ACEA, the European automobile manufacturers association, has asked for a two-year delay for heavy-duty vehicles, and that is a request only. Some trade items in mid-2026 claimed a delay to 2031 for trucks. Those claims could not be confirmed, so the safe planning assumption is the adopted dates. Check the Council and Parliament press rooms before relying on any delay report.

For buyers, the useful point is timing. A truck ordered in 2027 may be delivered before or after the 2028 type date, and the dealer should confirm which standard the delivered vehicle meets. The Euro 6 and Euro 7 explainer lists what each standard requires.

When must companies be ready for eFTI?

Companies should be ready by 2027-07-09, when Regulation (EU) 2020/1056 applies in full and competent authorities must accept electronic freight transport information from certified platforms, according to the European Commission eFTI timeline . In practice, eFTI lets authorities accept electronic data in place of paper documents, so it is the one 2027 rule that changes daily paperwork.

The phase-in has already started. The implementing and delegated acts entered into force on 2025-01-09. Since January 2026, platforms can prepare and authorities may accept data on a voluntary basis. A carrier does not have to become a platform operator, but it does have to know whether its transport management system can exchange data with a certified platform before the July date.

A reasonable readiness check has three questions: which of your shippers will ask for electronic documents first, whether your current system can export the required data fields, and who inside the company owns the certification question. The eFTI regulation guide explains the data model, and a transport management system review is the natural place to test the answers.

How will 2027 tolls and the CO2 review affect electric truck rollout?

The toll changes raise the running cost of diesel HGVs in several countries from 2027, while the CO2 standards review is a policy decision whose outcome nobody knows yet. Both matter for electric truck plans, but neither comes with a dated forecast for how many electric trucks will be on the road in 2027.

Which toll changes are scheduled for 2027?

Six national changes are listed in trans.info's overview of 2027 road tolls, published 2026-10-07 . Most are expected rather than final, and the Dutch rates were provisional when the article was written.

Germany has no dated 2027 rate change in the source. Stricter CO2 class reference values already took effect there on 2026-07-01. Poland and Denmark are proposals only.

The Slovak switch deserves early attention because it needs hardware or a provider contract, not just a new rate. EETS (the European Electronic Toll Service) providers can cover several countries with one contract, which is why they appear in the Slovak plan.

Where do electric trucks stand going into 2027?

Electrically chargeable trucks were 4.8% of new EU truck registrations in the first half of 2026, up from 3.6% in the first half of 2025, according to ACEA's H1 2026 registration data . Total truck registrations rose 9.8% to 171,933, while electrically chargeable registrations rose 47.7%. Diesel still made up 92.1% of new trucks.

ACEA does not separate battery-electric trucks from plug-in hybrids in this figure, so "electrically chargeable" is the accurate label. Treat 4.8% as a 2026 baseline, not as a trend line. No dated source gives a 2027 share.

Two policy points shape the next steps. The review of heavy-duty CO2 standards is due by 2027 under Article 15 of Regulation (EU) 2019/1242, and the Commission's position after that review will affect how fast manufacturers need to deliver zero-emission models. Separately, the trans.info overview notes that truck vignettes on the core TEN-T network are to be prohibited from March 2030, and that toll exemptions for zero-emission trucks end from mid-2031. Those later dates matter for the payback plan of any electric truck bought in 2027.

What does the demand and cost outlook look like for 2027?

The only dated 2027 forecast we found comes from the German Logistikweisen panel, which covers the German logistics market, and it points to slow growth with costs staying high. Its trend scenario is +1.0% real and +3.6% nominal growth for 2027. The best case is +1.6% real and +5.0% nominal, and the worst case is +0.2% real and +3.2% nominal. For comparison, the panel's 2026 estimate is just under 1% real and about 4% nominal. All figures come from VerkehrsRundschau, 2026-10-21 .

The panel also says logistics inflation stays high, with personnel costs as the main driver. It did not publish an inflation percentage in the coverage, so none is given here. The full annual report is due in the first quarter of 2027, and the numbers above come from press coverage only.

Rates are a separate question. The Upply, Ti and IRU benchmark showed a contract rate index of 140.1 and a spot index of 132.3 in the first quarter of 2026, with fuel costs tied to the Iran war cited as a driver, as VerkehrsRundschau reported . These are 2026 actuals, and they do not tell you what rates will do in 2027. A third-quarter edition is expected, so check the Upply benchmark hub before fixing contract rates.

Driver supply sits behind both numbers. Euronews reported on 2026-06-01 that road freight faces high fuel prices and an ageing workforce. The new driving licence directive, Directive (EU) 2025/2205, entered into force on 2025-11-25 with a transposition deadline of 2028-11-26, according to the European Parliament Legislative Observatory . Member States may extend accompanied driving before the minimum age to categories C1, C1E and C, and bus drivers will need to be at least 21. Because the deadline falls after 2027, the directive affects driver supply in the long term and not the 2027 numbers.

Where do warehousing and last mile stand going into 2027?

Warehousing enters 2027 with strong leasing activity and rising rents, but no dated source forecasts either for 2027. CBRE reported European logistics take-up of 6.8 million sq m in the second quarter of 2026, 30% above the second quarter of 2025. BNP Paribas Real Estate found prime rents up 3.3% year on year in the same quarter, across 45 markets in 21 countries.

This post gives no vacancy figure. The vacancy measures from different sources do not match, so quoting any one as the market vacancy rate would mislead. For planning, the two figures above describe where the market stands: demand for space is up, and landlords are charging more for the best locations. Both come from the second quarter of 2026, so they are a starting point for lease talks, not a 2027 prediction.

Last mile is the section with the least verified 2027 data. No dated 2026 or 2027 figures on parcel volumes or urban zero-emission zone start dates were confirmed for this post, so none are quoted. The last mile delivery trends guide is the better place to start for city-level detail.

Frequently asked questions

What are the main logistics trends for 2027 in Europe?

The main items are regulatory: eFTI applies in full from 2027-07-09, several national toll changes start on 2027-01-01, and the heavy-duty CO2 standards review is due. Demand is expected to grow modestly, with the German Logistikweisen panel's trend scenario at +1.0% real for Germany. ETS2 and Euro 7 fall after 2027, so 2027 is the preparation year for them.

Does ETS2 start in 2027?

No. ETS2 was moved back one year to 2028, following the agreement of 2025-12-09. Hauliers should treat 2027 as a preparation year and plan how carbon costs will pass through in contracts that run into 2028.

When does Euro 7 apply to HGVs?

Euro 7 applies to new heavy-duty vehicle types from 2028-05-29 and to all new heavy-duty vehicles from 2029-05-29, under Regulation (EU) 2024/1257. ACEA has asked for a two-year delay, but no change had been adopted as of 2026-11-05.

What is eFTI and who must comply?

eFTI is the EU framework for exchanging freight transport information electronically instead of on paper. From 2027-07-09, authorities must accept data from certified platforms. Carriers do not need their own platform, but they do need a system that can work with one.

Will road freight rates rise in 2027?

No dated source answers that. The Logistikweisen panel expects logistics inflation to stay high, with personnel costs as the main driver. The 2026 rate indices rose, but they are actuals and not a forecast.

What share of new EU trucks is electrically chargeable?

Electrically chargeable trucks were 4.8% of new EU truck registrations in the first half of 2026, according to ACEA. That figure includes plug-in hybrids, and diesel was still 92.1% of new trucks.

Start with the dates that fall inside the year: the January toll changes and the eFTI deadline in July. Then price the 2028 items (ETS2 and Euro 7) into contracts and purchase plans. To compare transport costs on your own lanes with these rule changes in mind, you can request a compliance-aware freight quote .