Truck driver shortage 2027: where it bites hardest and what it means for pay and jobs

Nobody can say exactly how bad the truck driver shortage will be in 2027, because no source publishes a 2027 count, but the latest readings show a gap that is large and still widening. The IRU Global Driver Shortage Report 2025 , published on 2026-06-30, found about 502,000 unfilled truck driver positions in Europe in 2025, a shortage rate of 13%, or roughly one driver job in eight. This post separates what is measured from what is only feared, then shows which countries carry the heaviest deficits and what that means for pay and job choice.

How big is the truck driver shortage in Europe right now?

The most recent pan-European reading is about 502,000 unfilled positions, or 13% of driver jobs, for 2025. It is a record. The IRU release of 2026-06-30 says the rate rose from 12% in the previous reading. IRU also describes the 2025 figure as higher than every earlier reading and as a break from the economic cycle, which suggests the gap is not tracking freight demand ( IRU report page, 2026-06-29 ). German trade press confirmed the same numbers on 2026-07-08 ( Eurotransport ).

Two more IRU readings from the same release matter for the outlook. Women make up about 4% of European truck drivers, so half of the potential workforce is barely recruited. Across the 18 markets IRU surveyed worldwide, road freight and passenger transport together lack 2.9 million drivers, an 11% rate.

For the 2026 baseline and how it hit freight capacity, see our earlier analysis: read the 2026 driver shortage and freight capacity breakdown .

Will the truck driver shortage get worse in 2027?

No source gives a 2027 number, so the honest answer is that the direction is clear and the size is unknown. This post does not estimate a 2027 count. Treat any headline that does with caution, and check the date and scope of the source behind it before you plan around it.

Only four forward-looking figures from dated 2026 sources are solid enough to use:

Sources for this table: IRU, 2026-06-30 , Polish Economic Institute, 2026-06-17 and CETM via Europa Press, 2026-02-04 .

The Spanish line is a warning from an industry confederation rather than a model output, and it targets 2028. The Polish figure refers to 2026 and the IRU figures to 2030. None of them converts into a single 2027 total.

Which countries will feel the driver shortage most?

Germany, Poland and Spain have the best-documented gaps, and all three show an ageing workforce. The table lists the dated readings available today, with the year each one refers to.

Sources for this table: BGL via Eurotransport, 2026-01-29 , Polish Economic Institute, 2026-06-17 and CETM via Europa Press, 2026-02-04 .

Germany loses drivers faster than it replaces them. BGL counts about 30,000 to 35,000 age-related retirements a year against about 15,000 to 20,000 new entrants. Poland's sector employed 137,000 people in 2024, and the Polish Economic Institute expects a deficit in most of the country's counties.

For Romania, France, the Netherlands and Italy, no dated national shortage figure is available, so this post does not offer one. For a Romanian angle on the problem, our look at the Latvia and Romania driver shortage case shows how one large carrier handled it.

Why is the shortage structural?

Age is the main reason. Entry barriers keep the pipeline thin. IRU expects about 660,500 European drivers to retire by 2030, roughly 20% of the workforce within five years. Replacing them requires young entrants, yet only 3% of Polish drivers are under 25 (2024 data) and more than half of Spain's drivers are past 55 (CETM, 2026-02).

Policy responses exist, but they arrive late. The EU driving licence Directive (EU) 2025/2205 entered into force on 2025-11-25, and member states have until 2028-11-26 to transpose it. It introduces an accompanied-driving scheme that member states may apply to categories C1, C1E and C, according to the European Parliament Legislative Observatory . Because transposition runs into late 2028, this change cannot reduce the gap in 2027.

Non-EU hiring policy is also unsettled. The Polish Economic Institute recommends recognising driver as a deficit occupation in Poland ( PIE, 2026-06-17 ), which so far remains a recommendation. Hiring from outside the EU is the other lever, with its own permit costs and delays; our guide to hiring and working as a non-EU truck driver in Europe covers the practical steps.

Will the shortage push truck driver pay up in 2027?

Pay pressure is possible, but no source ties the shortage to a specific 2027 driver wage. What is fixed for 2027 is the legal pay floor in Germany and Poland, while Romania has announced that its floor stays flat. A statutory minimum wage is a floor and not a driver salary.

Sources for this table: Bloomberg Law, 2025-10-29 , portaloswiatowy, 2026-09-15 and Undelucram, 2026-10-28 .

Unions in Romania ask for RON 5,000, so the Romanian figure may still change. No source measures how far driver pay will sit above these floors in 2027, and any effect will differ by country and employer. For real net pay by country, read our comparison of the highest paying countries for truck drivers in Europe in 2026 .

What does the shortage mean for drivers choosing a job?

The documented gaps are largest in Germany, Poland and Spain, so those markets have the strongest evidence of unfilled jobs. A driver with a valid CPC has a stronger case there, but no source measures how hard employers compete for applicants. Compare offers on net pay after costs, home time and contract type rather than on the headline rate alone.

Ageing also shapes the choice. Where a third or more of the workforce is over 55, as BGL reports for Germany, retirements are a steady source of vacancies, though no source gives a 2027 count. Drivers in countries without a dated figure, such as Italy or France, should not read the missing data as a sign of low demand. It only means nobody has measured it in a source we can cite.

Practical preparation helps. Check your licence and CPC dates well ahead of any move, and plan routes and rest stops before you start. Drivers who want a companion app for trip planning can try the Driver Assistant app on the road.

What should small carriers do before 2027?

Small carriers need a retention plan. IRU finds that operators with fewer than 50 staff face a shortage rate 6 percentage points higher than large fleets. A small firm has fewer recruiters, less brand reach and less room to absorb a long vacancy. Each driver who leaves costs a larger share of capacity.

Three habits help most. Track the age of your drivers and plan for retirements two to three years out. Publish pay and schedules clearly, since drivers compare offers across borders. Consider apprentices or career switchers early, because the licence pipeline takes months. The planning work starts inside your own roster, long before the next vacancy.

Frequently asked questions

How many truck drivers will Europe be short of in 2027?

No source publishes a 2027 figure. The latest dated reading is about 502,000 unfilled positions in 2025, a 13% shortage rate, from the IRU report published on 2026-06-30.

Which country has the biggest driver shortage?

No ranking exists on a common basis. Germany reports more than 70,000 missing drivers (2026-01), Spain about 30,000 (2026-02), and Poland expects a deficit in 326 of 380 counties in 2026.

Will truck driver wages rise in 2027?

Legal pay floors rise in Germany to EUR 14.60 per hour on 2027-01-01 and in Poland to PLN 4,950 gross a month. Those are floors and not driver salaries, and no source gives a 2027 driver wage forecast.

Will lowering the licence age help by 2027?

No. Directive (EU) 2025/2205 gives member states until 2028-11-26 to transpose its accompanied-driving scheme, so it cannot ease the gap in 2027.

What is the shortage rate for small carriers?

IRU reports that operators with fewer than 50 staff face a shortage rate 6 points higher than large fleets, as of the report published on 2026-06-30.

If you are weighing a move into driving or a new employer, browse current driver openings on the Logifie careers page .