Diesel price 2027: ETS2 was delayed to 2028, so why can diesel still cost more?

The ETS2 delay took one new EU carbon charge out of 2027. The rest of the diesel cost stack did not freeze. As of 2026-11-07, relief ending on 2026-12-31, as in Germany, can lift pump prices on 2027-01-01, and Germany keeps its national CO2 price.

Why can diesel cost more in 2027 if ETS2 starts in 2028?

ETS2, the EU carbon price on road fuel, now starts in 2028 according to the European Commission ETS2 page (updated 2026-09-02), as the ETS2 start date guide explains. National measures sit in a separate layer, and several of them end on 2026-12-31.

Germany cut energy tax on diesel by 14.04 ct/l from 2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31, and the Bundestag text archive (September 2026) mentions no extension. If the cut lapses with nothing replacing it, a Logifie calculation gives a step of +14.04 ct/l net, about 16.7 ct/l with 19% VAT, on 2027-01-01. See how the German tax cut ends for hauliers . Poland's regulation of 2026-10-02 (Dz.U. 2026 poz. 1289) lowers excise on certain motor fuels only until 2026-12-31, so check whether your fuel is covered. The EU METSAF state aid framework for fuel costs also applies only until that day, with no extension listed on 2026-11-07 (see what changes when METSAF fuel aid expires ).

Germany also keeps charging its national CO2 price. The 2027 corridor of 55 to 65 EUR/t passed the Bundestag on 2026-10-15, and the Bundesrat deadline is 2026-11-20 (BR-Drs. 624/26). At 2.676 kg CO2 per litre, a Logifie calculation puts that at about 14.7 to 17.4 ct/l net, the same range as 2026. See the German CO2 price breakdown for 2027 diesel .

Are crude oil forecasts for 2027 higher or lower than 2026?

Lower, in both the EIA and World Bank outlooks, though these are crude forecasts and not diesel forecasts. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook , released 2026-10-06, puts Brent at 84 USD/bbl in 2027 after 96 USD in 2026. The World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook press release of 2026-10-28 gives 79 USD after 91 USD, with an adverse scenario of 105 USD in 2027.

Other signals also point down. No EU carbon charge is added to road fuel in 2027. The Dutch cabinet proposes keeping its diesel excise discount to 2027-12-31 (Rijksoverheid), and the Tweede Kamer votes on 2026-11-12. The Bundestag research service reported on 2026-10-19 that the German government announced a fuel price cap by 2027-01-01 at the latest, which is an announcement and not law. The picture is mixed: lower crude, and tax relief that may lapse in some countries.

What should hauliers budget for diesel in 2027?

Budget Q1 2027 twice for your HGV fleet, once with the relief and once without it. First check which of your fuel clauses are indexed to pump prices or a published diesel index, because that decides who carries a January step.

Then watch four dates: 2026-11-12 for the Dutch vote, 2026-11-20 for the Bundesrat deadline, any German decision before 2026-12-31, and the next EIA outlook on 2026-11-10. Compare country averages weekly to spot a January step early.

Frequently asked questions

Did the ETS2 delay make diesel cheaper in 2027?

It removed a scheduled EU carbon charge but did not lower existing taxes, and relief ending on 2026-12-31 can still push pump prices up on 2027-01-01 where it lapses.

How much does the German CO2 price add to a litre of diesel in 2027?

A Logifie calculation gives about 14.7 ct/l net at 55 EUR/t and 17.4 ct/l net at 65 EUR/t. The 2027 corridor passed the Bundestag on 2026-10-15, and no Bundesrat vote was found as of 2026-11-07.

Will diesel prices go down in 2027?

Crude forecasts point lower: EIA 84 USD after 96 USD, World Bank 79 USD after 91 USD. Pump prices also depend on taxes and relief that differ by country.

When does ETS2 start for diesel?

ETS2 starts in 2028, after the Council of the EU confirmed the shift from 2027 on 2026-03-05.

Check current diesel prices by country on the EU fuel price map .